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For the north Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the gulf of Mexico, the national hurricane center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ernesto, located in the southeastern Caribbean Sea.

A well-defined low pressure area associated with a tropical wave is located over the eastern tropical Atlantic about 230 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands. Showers and thunderstorms have become more organized around the low today, and if current trends continue advisories could be initiated later this evening. Although environmental conditions are currently conducive for tropical cyclone formation, dry air and cooler waters could inhibit further development in a day or two. This system has a high chance — 70 percent — of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.

The area of showers and thunderstorms has increased over eastern Cuba and the central and northwestern Bahamas in association with a surface trough. Upper-level winds may become somewhat more conducive for development over the next day or two. However, as the trough moves to the northwest at about 10 mph, development could be inhibited as the system moves over or near the Florida peninsula by Sunday. This system has a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Meanwhile, Tropical Depression 6 formed in the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center also released its initial advisory on Tropical Depression 6 on Friday night. It said the depression is moving west-northwest around 16 mph, and that motion was expected to continue at a slightly slower forward speed over the next two days.

Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph. Some intensification over the next day or two was expected. The forecast map showed the depression likely to become Tropical Storm Florence on Saturday. However, the map indicated it would return to depression status by Monday and that it would be a post-tropical depression by Tuesday.

Ernesto Moves Into Caribbean; Sixth Tropical Depression Forms In Eastern Atlantic Ocean  was originally published on