National

NHC Atlantic Outlook ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO...LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW TODAY...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...DRY AIR AND COOLER WATERS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. 2. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH...DEVELOPMENT COULD BE INHIBITED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA NNNN

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